24 January, 2010

Fixing the US Economy...



Is impossible.

See what I did there? You thought you were going to read something about fixing the US economy, then I dropped a polished turd right in your lap! In English, we call that "writin' good". But enough with the jokes ladies and gents, lets talk frankly here and air some grievances, in much the same way Frank Costanza would want, around the "Festivus pole", prior to the "feats of strength".

Our "countrymen" have essentially sold us for pennies, and as we all know once one has been sold for a bargain, it is nigh impossible to get the other party to sell you back for those same pennies. Our movies for many years have been full of shrewd business deals, where suckers get duped, richers get richer, and in the end, somehow, the villain inexplicably gets their just desserts. Except for that last part, movies are absolutely correct.

The biggest mistake we have made recently is believing that the bank barons at the top of the food chain were going to change their ways. We viewed them as children, who getting in over their heads came to mommy and daddy blubbering about failure and begging for a hot capital injection. We gave it to them and then some, only to be rewarded by a slap to the face. Our prodigal sons took the money and made record profits with it. Bravo! I mean, if they make more money, that means more jobs and opportunity and wealth being spread around to everyone right? Wrong. It meant record bonuses to their employees, a quick repayment of loaned funds (so that they could legally GIVE said bonuses), and one single greeting card to the tax payer... On the cover, it said "Thank You", on the inside it said "Fuck You".

It wasn't bad enough that we lent them money to buy up all of our assets when they cost pennies and were dragging on the floor, some of it coming from people forced to liquidate 401k and IRA money to survive after losing their job, OR, selling it fearing the end of the world. It wasn't bad enough that we bailed out mortgage companies and insurance companies along with these banks... No, the worst part is that the sweetheart deal with AIG made it possible for Golden Sacks to receive DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR the money due them in credit-default-swaps... You remember CDS' we talked about those a few months ago... Basically the government not only lent Golden $70,000,000,000 dollars, but also set them up to receive a super sweet insurance payout BECAUSE everything got screwed up. In other words, the economy being destroyed was the best case scenario for the succubi at Goldman.

Now, our president wants to seriously tie a noose around the necks of these sons of bitches to stop them from engaging in incestuous business practices! He basically (oversimplification) wants to enact a 21st century version of the Glass-Steagall act which would separate banks from brokerages from insurance companies. Great Cesar's ghost! I love this idea, I would have loved it even more had that original act never been repealed, but to hell with it, I'm going to celebrate the fact someone at the highest level finally realized this is a problem!

Or rather, I would be celebrating, were it not for one small detail... Some of the biggest perpetrators in this mess ONLY became chartered banks because they were forced to in order to qualify for TARP... If President Obama's legislation were to miraculously be enacted, these guys would drop their charters in a New York minute, and would do so grinning... As they are no longer under the auspices of the TARP program, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by no longer being considered a bank.

Our domestic picture is very ugly my friends, and as I look around me and see people smile at these "indicators" and the "glimmers of hope" I can only sigh and try to restrain the tears of impotent anger that well up in my eyes. The stock market has been up in recent months, but is that to be believed? After the lid was blown off the rating agencies selling ratings last year I don't think I have a whole hell of a lot of faith in the market period. Who's to say Meredith Whitney or (insert your favorite analyst) isn't helping build a head of froth on this Cappuccino of High Finance before the short sellers come in and burst bubbles with a flourish and a pin-striped pin prick?

What most people who don't actively invest fail to realize is that you can make money when the market is going up, but you can make even *more* money when the market is going down! It's called short selling, and it is not for the faint of heart or pocketbook... Shorting (of the naked variety) is not the only market anomaly we should be concerned about. Have you ever heard of "Dark Pools" or "High-Frequency Trading"? Of course you haven't... and the brokerages wouldn't have it *any* other way. If you want a visual of what has happened to the markets over the years and how much manipulation takes place, there is a simple way to do it... Go to Google finance, pick a bellwether blue chip baby like General Electric (GE) or Ford (F) or a recently hot stock like Potash Corp (POT) and pull up the quote... at the top of the daily chart, you will be able to pick your timeline... after "10YR" there is a button that says "MAX" which will take your timeline out as far as it can go... just look at the stability of these stocks in the 70's and 80's... look at what started happening in the mid 80's... then the 90's... then today... You don't need a PhD in Economics or Finance to see there is something seriously amiss.

At the end of the day however, stock market manipulation matters most to those with the money to play the market, or with a job that offers retirement planning. Yes, it is of little import to the 10% (listed, not actual) of working age Americans without a job. And therein lies the deeper problem. I don't care if the Dow hits 18,000... If there is no work, there will be no fixing this economy, and the way I see it there is no work. Good luck asking Wal-Mart or Ford to bring manufacturing jobs back to America... Good luck asking the Chinese to forgive our near 1 TRILLION dollars of debt outstanding to them.

The way I see it we have committed the error of all empires before us, except that we have done it in a measly 200 years and in a different way. We have spread our tendrils financially rather than physically. We have conquered economies... Some among us have made themselves filthy rich by dealing with the devil and selling the rest of us into economic slavery. And now, regrettably, it is too late. Now we can only wait for the inevitable paradigm shift... On the bright side, once that shift happens there will be TONS of jobs in America! When the other shoe drops, the Chinese will put it on and we'll be sewing the NY Yankees jerseys. Problem is, we won't be able to afford buying them. If you want proof that there is no such thing as "too big to fail" just watch what happens to us.

If post apocalyptic movies and video games have taught me anything, and I mean anything, it's that now would be a good time to invest in 5.56mm NATO or .223 Remington... and no, those aren't hot stocks. Hmm... on second thought, maybe I shouldn't be taking financial advice from Mad Max.

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